Empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning a regional aquatic long-term monitoring program using causal modelling

Conceptual models are an integral facet of long-term monitoring programs. Proposed linkages between drivers, stressors, and ecological indicators are identified within the conceptual model of most mandated programs. We empirically evaluate a conceptual model developed for a regional aquatic and riparian monitoring program using causal models (i.e., Bayesian path analysis). We assess whether data gathered for regional status and trend estimation can also provide insights on why a stream may deviate from reference conditions. We target the hypothesized causal pathways for how anthropogenic drivers of road density, percent grazing, and percent forest within a catchment affect instream biological condition. We found instream temperature and fine sediments in arid sites and only fine sediments in mesic sites accounted for a significant portion of the maximum possible variation explainable in biological condition among managed sites. However, the biological significance of the direct effects of anthropogenic drivers on instream temperature and fine sediments were minimal or not detected. Consequently, there was weak to no biological support for causal pathways related to anthropogenic drivers’ impact on biological condition. With weak biological and statistical effect sizes, ignoring environmental contextual variables and covariates that explain natural heterogeneity would have resulted in no evidence of human impacts on biological integrity in some instances. For programs targeting the effects of anthropogenic activities, it is imperative to identify both land use practices and mechanisms that have led to degraded conditions (i.e., moving beyond simple status and trend estimation). Our empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning the long-term monitoring program provided an opportunity for learning and, consequently, we discuss survey design elements that require modification to achieve question driven monitoring, a necessary step in the practice of adaptive monitoring. We suspect our situation is not unique and many programs may suffer from the same inferential disconnect. Commonly, the survey design is optimized for robust estimates of regional status and trend detection and not necessarily to provide statistical inferences on the causal mechanisms outlined in the conceptual model, even though these relationships are typically used to justify and promote the long-term monitoring of a chosen ecological indicator. Our application demonstrates a process for empirical evaluation of conceptual models and exemplifies the need for such interim assessments in order for programs to evolve and persist.     

On the Information Matrix of Exponential Mixture Models with Long-term Survivors

The aim of this paper is to study the properties of the asymptotic variances of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the exponential mixture model with long-term survivors for randomly censored data. In addition, we study the asymptotic relative efficiency of these estimators versus those which would be obtained with complete follow-up. It is shown that fixed censoring at time T produces higher precision as well as higher asymptotic relative efficiency than those obtainable under uniform and uniform-exponential censoring distributions over (0, T). The results are useful in planning the size and duration of survival experiments with long-term survivors under random censoring schemes.     

Correlation between two components of parental investment: nest defence intensity and nestling provisioning effort of willow tits

Nest defence intensity and nestling provisioning effort of female willow tits (Parus montanus) were significantly correlated at the end of nestling period: well-fed young were defended most intensely. Increased effort was rewarded, since broods with the highest female per-offspring provisioning rates were the most likely to produce local recruits. This suggests that the feeding ability is an important cue for parental investment decisions, at least in a species like the willow tit which has adopted the clutch adjustment strategy. Thus, the most valuable broods would not necessarily be the largest ones, but the ones in which the original number of young could be fed most adequately. However, no associations were found between the level of parental effort and offspring weight, size or condition, nor did the broods producing recruits differ from other broods in timing of breeding or number and size of offspring. The female behaviour may suggest that they invest the most time, energy and risk in the young whose chances of joining the winter flock are the best. The first well-fed young also gain an advantage of prior residency in joining the flock. The first to join normally obtain higher social status, and hence better winter survival, than latecomers. The corresponding patterns in male parental investment behaviour were weak or absent, which suggested that the male effort was affected by the female behaviour. Males seemed to invest in nestling provisioning in such a way as to supplement the female effort. During nest defence action males also seemed to invest in protection of females against predation.     

D-Cycloserine: Agonist turned antagonist

Summary D-Cycloserine can enhance activation of the NMDA receptor complex and could enhance the induction of long-term potentiation (LTP). In animals and humans, D-cycloserine can enhance performance in learning and memory tasks. This enhancing effect can disappear during repeated administration. The enhancing effects are also lost when higher doses are used, and replaced by behavioral and biochemical effects like those produced by NMDA antagonists. It has been reported that NMDA agonists, applied before or after tetanic stimulation, can block the induction of LTP. This may be the result of feedback inhibition of second messenger pathways stimulated by receptor activation. This may explain the antagonist-like effects of glycine partial agonists like D-cycloserine. In clinical trials of D-cycloserine in age-associated memory impairment (AAMI) and Alzheimer's disease, chronic treatment provided few positive effects on learning and memory. This may be due to inhibition of second messenger pathways following chronic stimulation of the receptor complex.     

The Analysis of Partial Diallel Crosses

The analysis of offsprings from the partial diallel crosses is presented. In considered type of crossing, p parental forms into H separate groups are devided. Single crosses among parental forms, from separate groups only, are performed. The analysis for experiments laid out in efficiency balanced block designs is given.     

A general approach to the concept of varietal ability for synthetic varieties

Summary Genetic effects for varietal value are defined at the level of the population of k-parent synthetic varieties. A simple expression for the total variance among synthetics arises directly from these definitions. A general expression for the covariance among related synthetics is given. Genetic effects are also defined in a completely general way so as to allow for any system of testing and used to derive an expression for the genetic advance in recurrent selection for varietal value. Covariances between relatives evaluated in the system of testing and in varietal combination are introduced, allowing a direct expression of the genetic advance in varietal development when parents are selected either individually or in groups. Some general implications for plant breeding are outlined.Dedicated to Professor F.W. Schnell on the occasion of his 65th birthday     

Prediction of yield in the Rothamsted Park Grass Experiment by Ellenberg indicator values

Abstract. The Rothamsted Park Grass Experiment was established in 1856, with experimental plots subjected to annual applications of fertilizer and twice-yearly cutting of hay. There were two major responses to fertilizer, one reflecting high ammonium-nitrogen and increased acidity and the other reflecting high herbage yield without increased acidity. We calculated mean Ellenberg indicator values for N (nitrogen) and R (soil reaction) for the hay harvested between 1948 and 1975, using both unweighted and abundance-weighted means. Plot Ellenberg values were compared with herbage yield and with fertilizer application rates and published soil data. Annual yield of hay varied from 1.5 to 7.4 t/ha and was well predicted by the unweighted mean Ellenberg N-values (r = 0.91). Relatively large negative residuals from the relationship were found in plots whose soil combined low K and low pH. Soil pH was poorly predicted by the unweighted mean R-value, but showed a moderately good relation with weighted mean R (r = 0.73). The fact that Ellenberg N-values correlated better with yield than with applied nitrogen suggests that they might rather be called productivity values.     

Shifting the balance between foraging and predator avoidance: the importance of food distribution for a schooling pelagic forager

It is widely held that when predator avoidance conflicts with other activities, such as feeding, avoidance of predators often takes precedence. In this study, we examine how predation risk and food distribution interact to influence the schooling behavior and swimming speed of foraging juvenile walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma. Fish were acclimated to either spatially and temporally clumped, or spatially and temporally dispersed food for 3 weeks. Fish were then monitored while feeding in the absence and presence of predatory sablefish, Anoplopoma fimbria. Fish foraging for clumped food swam rapidly in a loose school when predators were absent, but swam more slowly and adopted more cohesive schooling in the presence of predators, trading-off foraging opportunity for decreased vulnerability to predators. Fish foraging for dispersed food swam about slowly and did not engage in cohesive schooling in either the absence or presence of predators. These fish accepted greater predation risk in order to continue foraging, suggesting that the cost of schooling, in terms of decreased foraging opportunity, was greater when food was dispersed than when it was clumped. This lower responsiveness to predators among fish receiving dispersed food demonstrates that predator avoidance does not always take precedence over other activities, but rather, that a balance is maintained between predator avoidance and feeding, which shifts as food distribution changes.